BAYESIAN MODELING FOR PERISHABLE LIFE TIME VS. VIBRATION

Mechanical damage to perishable products is a problem that costs millions of dollars annually to the fresh fruit and vegetable industry, which can represent up to one-fifth of the export volume. There are studies on ripening processes under controlled temperature conditions, as well as the effects of cold in the oenological industry. A model of the temperature-dependent fermentation process is shown using the Arrhenius equation to relate the temperature parameter to the rate of the reaction as a stress factor and with values related to grape parameters and the thermal process followed. A statistical proposal is presented for perishable product ripening data with vibration as a stress factor using as a basis the Arrhenius equation for the reaction rate between components, introducing vibration in substitution to temperature, thus considering the addition of mechanical energy to the system. The basic Bayesian theory is explored and proposals of statistical models for the prediction of the effects due to vibration on the life time of perishable products are analyzed.