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Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy

A Puzzle and a Resolution

Language EnglishEnglish
Book Paperback
Book Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy Peter McAdam
Libristo code: 08140116
Publishers Bibliogov, September 2012
We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (name... Full description
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We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely, to be forward looking and preemptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following "Calvo-type" inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules that depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks and potentially mimicking central bankers' practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are, first, less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area.

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About the book

Full name Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy
Author Peter McAdam
Language English
Binding Book - Paperback
Date of issue 2012
Number of pages 38
EAN 9781249560388
ISBN 9781249560388
Libristo code 08140116
Publishers Bibliogov
Weight 86
Dimensions 189 x 246 x 2
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